README.md

@@ -1,15 +0,0 @@
-<!-- vscode-markdown-toc -->
-* 1. [TOC](#TOC)
-* 2. [Introduction](#Introduction)
-
-<!-- vscode-markdown-toc-config
-	numbering=true
-	autoSave=true
-	/vscode-markdown-toc-config -->
-<!-- /vscode-markdown-toc --># Analyse Legislatives 2024
-
-##  1. <a name='TOC'></a>TOC
-
-
-
-##  2. <a name='Introduction'></a>Introduction

analyse-duckdb.sql

@@ -132,50 +132,6 @@ FROM cleaned_undecided AS cu
 JOIN duels AS d
 ON d.circo_code = cu.circo_code;
 
-CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE projection AS
-WITH report AS (
-	SELECT 
-		dc.region,
-		dc.circo,
-		rvd."to" AS orientation,
-		dc.exprimes * rvd.quantity AS projection
-	FROM tour_2 AS dc
-	JOIN report_voix_duel AS rvd
-	ON (
-		dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_1 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_2
-		OR dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_2 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_1
-		) AND rvd."from" = dc.orientation
-	ORDER BY circo_code
-), agg_projection AS (
-	SELECT region, circo, orientation, SUM(projection) AS projection
-	FROM report
-	GROUP BY region, circo, orientation
-	ORDER BY region, circo, orientation
-)
-SELECT 
-	region,
-	circo,
-	orientation,
-	projection / SUM(projection) OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo) AS projection
-FROM agg_projection
-
-CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE projection_voix AS
-SELECT 
-	dc.region,
-	dc.circo,
-	rvd."to" AS orientation,
-	SUM(dc.voix * rvd.quantity) AS projection
-FROM tour_2 AS dc
-JOIN report_voix_duel AS rvd
-ON (
-	dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_1 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_2
-	OR dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_2 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_1
-	) AND rvd."from" = dc.orientation
-GROUP BY 
-	dc.region,
-	dc.circo,
-	rvd."to"
-
 -----
 
 -- Circonscriptions dans lesquelles il y a 2 candidats de même orientation
@@ -197,152 +153,28 @@ GROUP BY orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2
 ORDER BY n DESC;
 
 -- Après report de voix
-WITH ordered_projection AS (
+WITH report AS (
+	SELECT dc.region, dc.circo, rvd."to" AS orientation, dc.exprimes * rvd.quantity AS projection
+	FROM tour_2 AS dc
+	JOIN report_voix_duel AS rvd
+	ON (
+		dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_1 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_2
+		OR dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_2 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_1
+		) AND rvd."from" = dc.orientation
+	ORDER BY circo_code
+), agg_projection AS (
+	SELECT region, circo, orientation, sum(projection) AS projection
+	FROM report
+	GROUP BY region, circo, orientation
+	ORDER BY region, circo, orientation
+), ordered_projection AS (
 	SELECT 
 		*, 
 		ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo ORDER BY projection DESC) AS pos
-	FROM projection
+	FROM agg_projection
 )
 SELECT orientation, count(*) AS n
 FROM ordered_projection
 WHERE pos = 1
 GROUP BY orientation
 ORDER BY n DESC;
-
-
--- Projection avec faible écart
-CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE difference AS
-WITH diff_null AS (
-	SELECT 
-		p.region,
-		p.circo,
-		FIRST(p.orientation) OVER (PARTITION BY p.region, p.circo ORDER BY p.projection DESC) AS elu,
-		ABS(p.projection - lag(p.projection) OVER (PARTITION BY p.region, p.circo)) AS diff,
-		ABS(pv.projection - lag(pv.projection) OVER (PARTITION BY p.region, p.circo)) AS diff_voix
-	FROM projection AS p
-	JOIN projection_voix AS pv
-	ON p.region = pv.region
-		AND p.circo = pv.circo
-		AND p.orientation = pv.orientation
-	ORDER BY p.region, p.circo
-), duels_circo AS (
-	SELECT DISTINCT circo_code, region, circo, orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2
-	FROM tour_2
-)
-SELECT dc.*, d.elu, d.diff, d.diff_voix
-FROM duels_circo AS dc
-JOIN diff_null AS d
-ON d.region = dc.region 
-	AND d.circo = dc.circo
-WHERE d.diff IS NOT NULL;
-
-
--- Nombre de duels avec un écart entre les candidats de 1, 2, 5, 10, 20 et 50 pourcents
-WITH bucket_diff_orientation AS (
-	SELECT 
-		orientation_candidat_1 || ' v ' || orientation_candidat_2 AS duel,
-		elu AS "projection élu",
-		SUM(CASE WHEN diff < 0.01 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS "1%",
-		SUM(CASE WHEN diff < 0.02 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS "2%",
-		SUM(CASE WHEN diff < 0.05 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS "5%",
-		SUM(CASE WHEN diff < 0.10 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS "10%",
-		SUM(CASE WHEN diff < 0.20 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS "20%",
-		SUM(CASE WHEN diff < 0.50 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS "50%",
-		COUNT(*) AS total
-	FROM difference
-	GROUP BY 
-		orientation_candidat_1,
-		orientation_candidat_2,
-		elu
-), ordered_bucket_diff_orientation AS (
-	SELECT 
-		*,
-		ROW_NUMBER() OVER (ORDER BY duel DESC, "projection élu" DESC) AS r
-	FROM bucket_diff_orientation
-), res AS (
-	SELECT *
-	FROM ordered_bucket_diff_orientation
-	UNION ALL
-	SELECT 
-		'TOTAL' AS duel,
-		'' AS "projection élu",
-		SUM("1%") AS "1%",
-		SUM("2%") AS "3%",
-		SUM("5%") AS "5%",
-		SUM("10%") AS "10%",
-		SUM("20%") AS "30%",
-		SUM("50%") AS "50%",
-		SUM(total) AS total,
-		0 AS r
-	FROM ordered_bucket_diff_orientation
-)
-SELECT * EXCLUDE (r)
-FROM res
-ORDER BY r DESC;
-
-
--- Pour les ecarts de moins de 5%, à combien de voix cela se joue ?
-SELECT 
-	orientation_candidat_1 || ' v ' || orientation_candidat_2 AS duel,
-	elu AS "projection élu",
-	round(min(diff_voix)) AS "min",
-	round(max(diff_voix)) AS "max",
-	round(mean(diff_voix)) AS "moyenne",
-	round(quantile_disc(diff_voix, 0.25)) AS "1er Quartile",
-	round(median(diff_voix)) AS "médianne",
-	round(quantile_disc(diff_voix, 0.75)) AS "3e Quartile",
-FROM difference
-WHERE diff < 0.05
-GROUP BY 
-	orientation_candidat_1,
-	orientation_candidat_2,
-	elu
-ORDER BY 
-	duel, 
-	"projection élu"
-	
-	
--- Les "swing" circos où la gauche est présente
-SELECT *
-FROM difference
-WHERE orientation_candidat_1 = 'Gauche'
-	OR orientation_candidat_2 = 'Gauche'
-ORDER BY diff	
-	
--- Rank des "swing" circos analysés par Averroès
-SELECT 
-	circo_code AS 'Code Circo',
-	region AS 'Région',
-	circo AS 'Circo',
-	CASE WHEN diff < 0.01 THEN TRUE ELSE FALSE END AS '<1%',
-	CASE WHEN diff < 0.02 THEN TRUE ELSE FALSE END AS '<2%',
-	CASE WHEN diff < 0.05 THEN TRUE ELSE FALSE END AS '<5%',
-	CASE WHEN elu = 'Gauche' THEN TRUE ELSE FALSE END AS 'Gauche favorite ?'
-FROM difference 
-WHERE circo_code IN (
-	'0502',
-	'0703',
-	'1202',
-	'1601',
-	'2103',
-	'2404',
-	'3103',
-	'3704',
-	'3809',
-	'6302',
-	'6303',
-	'6406',
-	'6912',
-	'7701',
-	'7708',
-	'8002',
-	'8401',
-	'8602',
-	'8703',
-	'9404',
-	'9407',
-	'0402'
-)
-ORDER BY circo_code
-
-