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@ -0,0 +1,180 @@
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-------------------------
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-- Prep
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-------------------------
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SET file_search_path = '/home/daifukusan/Documents/analysis/legislatives2024/res/';
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CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE nuances AS
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SELECT
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*,
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CASE
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WHEN orientation = 'Extrême Gauche' THEN -2
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WHEN orientation = 'Gauche' THEN -1
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WHEN orientation = 'Centre' THEN 0
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WHEN orientation = 'Droite' THEN 1
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WHEN orientation = 'Extrême Droite' THEN 2
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END AS 'orientation_num'
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FROM read_csv_auto('nuances.csv');
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CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE raw AS
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SELECT
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regexp_extract(region, '\((.+)\)', 1) AS region_code,
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region,
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regexp_extract(circo, '\((.+)\)', 1) AS circo_code,
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circo,
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trim(results->'$[0]', '"') AS nuance,
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trim(results->'$[1]', '"') AS candidat,
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CAST(results->'$[2]' AS BIGINT) AS voix,
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CAST(results->'$[3]' AS DECIMAL) AS inscrits,
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CAST(results->'$[4]' AS DECIMAL) AS exprimes,
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trim(results->'$[5]', '"') AS qualif,
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FROM (
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SELECT region, circo, unnest(results) AS results
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FROM read_json_auto('legislatives_2024_fr_results.json')
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) AS t;
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CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE undecided AS
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WITH with_qualif AS (
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SELECT DISTINCT region, circo
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FROM raw
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WHERE qualif = 'QUALIF T2'
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)
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SELECT r.* FROM raw AS r
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JOIN with_qualif AS u
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ON u.region = r.region
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AND u.circo = r.circo;
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-------------------
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-- Analyse
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-------------------
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-- Configurations de second tours par ordre de voix par qualifiés
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WITH versus AS (
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SELECT region, circo, string_agg(nuance, ', ' ORDER BY exprimes) AS vs
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FROM raw
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WHERE qualif = 'QUALIF T2'
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GROUP BY region, circo
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ORDER BY region, circo
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)
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SELECT
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count(*) AS "nombre",
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vs AS "configuration" FROM versus
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GROUP BY vs
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ORDER BY "nombre" DESC;
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-- Nombre de 2n tours
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SELECT
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CASE WHEN qualif = 'OUI' THEN 'NON' ELSE 'OUI' END AS '2nd tour ?',
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count(*) as 'nombre'
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FROM (SELECT DISTINCT region, circo, qualif FROM raw WHERE qualif in ('QUALIF T2', 'OUI')) AS t
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GROUP BY qualif;
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-- Nombre de circonscriptions qui auront un 2nd tour dans lesquelles NFP est arrivé à telle ou telle position au premier tour:
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WITH ordered AS (
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SELECT
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*,
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ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo ORDER BY exprimes DESC) AS pos
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FROM raw
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WHERE qualif = 'QUALIF T2'
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)
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SELECT pos AS "Position 1er tour", count(*) AS "Nombre de Circonscription" FROM ordered
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WHERE nuance = 'UG'
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GROUP BY pos
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ORDER BY pos;
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----------------------
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-- Projection
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----------------------
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CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE cleaned_undecided AS
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SELECT
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region_code,
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circo_code,
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region,
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circo,
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nuance,
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candidat,
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voix,
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inscrits,
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exprimes,
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CASE WHEN qualif = 'NON' THEN FALSE ELSE TRUE END AS qualified,
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code,
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nom,
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orientation,
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orientation_num,
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ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo ORDER BY exprimes DESC) AS pos
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FROM undecided AS r
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JOIN nuances AS n
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ON r.nuance = n.code;
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CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE report_voix_duel AS
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SELECT
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*
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FROM read_csv_auto('report_voix_duel.csv');
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CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE tour_2 AS
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WITH duels AS (
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SELECT circo_code, list(orientation ORDER BY orientation) AS orientations
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FROM cleaned_undecided
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WHERE qualified = TRUE
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AND pos <= 2
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GROUP BY circo_code
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)
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SELECT
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cu.*,
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CASE WHEN orientation = 'Extrême Gauche' THEN 'Gauche' ELSE orientation END AS bucket_orientation,
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CASE WHEN orientation_num = -2 THEN -1 ELSE orientation_num END AS bucket_orientation_num,
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d.orientations[1] AS orientation_candidat_1,
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d.orientations[2] AS orientation_candidat_2
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FROM cleaned_undecided AS cu
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JOIN duels AS d
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ON d.circo_code = cu.circo_code;
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-----
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-- Circonscriptions dans lesquelles il y a 2 candidats de même orientation
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SELECT region, circo, orientation, string_agg(nuance, ', ' ORDER BY exprimes DESC) AS nuances
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FROM cleaned_undecided
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WHERE qualified = TRUE
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GROUP BY region, circo, orientation
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HAVING count(*) >= 2
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ORDER BY orientation, region, circo
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-- Duels en cas de désistement automatique
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WITH duels_circo AS (
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SELECT DISTINCT circo_code, orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2
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FROM tour_2
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)
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SELECT orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2, count(*) AS n
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FROM duels_circo
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GROUP BY orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2
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ORDER BY n DESC;
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-- Après report de voix
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WITH report AS (
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SELECT dc.region, dc.circo, rvd."to" AS orientation, dc.exprimes * rvd.quantity AS projection
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FROM tour_2 AS dc
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JOIN report_voix_duel AS rvd
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ON (
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dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_1 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_2
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OR dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_2 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_1
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) AND rvd."from" = dc.orientation
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ORDER BY circo_code
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), agg_projection AS (
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SELECT region, circo, orientation, sum(projection) AS projection
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FROM report
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GROUP BY region, circo, orientation
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ORDER BY region, circo, orientation
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), ordered_projection AS (
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SELECT
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*,
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ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo ORDER BY projection DESC) AS pos
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FROM agg_projection
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)
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SELECT orientation, count(*) AS n
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FROM ordered_projection
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WHERE pos = 1
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GROUP BY orientation
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ORDER BY n DESC;
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