analyse_legislatives_2024/analyse-duckdb.sql

-------------------------
-- Prep
-------------------------
SET file_search_path = '/home/daifukusan/Documents/analysis/legislatives2024/res/';

CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE nuances AS
SELECT 
	*,
	CASE 
		WHEN orientation = 'Extrême Gauche' THEN -2
		WHEN orientation = 'Gauche' THEN -1
		WHEN orientation = 'Centre' THEN 0
		WHEN orientation = 'Droite' THEN 1
		WHEN orientation = 'Extrême Droite' THEN 2
	END AS 'orientation_num'
FROM read_csv_auto('nuances.csv');

CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE raw AS
SELECT
	regexp_extract(region, '\((.+)\)', 1) AS region_code,
	region,
	regexp_extract(circo, '\((.+)\)', 1) AS circo_code,
	circo,
	trim(results->'$[0]', '"') AS nuance, 
	trim(results->'$[1]', '"') AS candidat, 
	CAST(results->'$[2]' AS BIGINT) AS voix,
	CAST(results->'$[3]' AS DECIMAL) AS inscrits,
	CAST(results->'$[4]' AS DECIMAL) AS exprimes,
	trim(results->'$[5]', '"') AS qualif,
FROM (
	SELECT region, circo, unnest(results) AS results
	FROM read_json_auto('legislatives_2024_fr_results.json')
	) AS t;


CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE undecided AS
WITH with_qualif AS (
	SELECT DISTINCT region, circo 
	FROM raw
	WHERE qualif = 'QUALIF T2'
)
SELECT r.* FROM raw AS r
JOIN with_qualif AS u
ON u.region = r.region
AND u.circo = r.circo;

-------------------
-- Analyse
-------------------

-- Configurations de second tours par ordre de voix par qualifiés
WITH versus AS (
	SELECT region, circo, string_agg(nuance, ', ' ORDER BY exprimes) AS vs
	FROM raw
	WHERE qualif = 'QUALIF T2'
	GROUP BY region, circo
	ORDER BY region, circo
)
SELECT 
	count(*) AS "nombre", 
	vs AS "configuration" FROM versus
GROUP BY vs
ORDER BY "nombre" DESC;

-- Nombre de 2n tours
SELECT 
	CASE WHEN qualif = 'OUI' THEN 'NON' ELSE 'OUI' END AS '2nd tour ?',
	count(*) as 'nombre'
FROM (SELECT DISTINCT region, circo, qualif FROM raw WHERE qualif in ('QUALIF T2', 'OUI')) AS t
GROUP BY qualif;


-- Nombre de circonscriptions qui auront un 2nd tour dans lesquelles NFP est arrivé à telle ou telle position au premier tour:
WITH ordered AS (
	SELECT 
		*,
		ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo ORDER BY exprimes DESC) AS pos
	FROM raw
	WHERE qualif = 'QUALIF T2'
)
SELECT pos AS "Position 1er tour", count(*) AS "Nombre de Circonscription" FROM ordered
WHERE nuance = 'UG'
GROUP BY pos
ORDER BY pos;

----------------------
-- Projection
----------------------

CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE cleaned_undecided AS 
SELECT 
	region_code,
	circo_code,
	region,
	circo,
	nuance,
	candidat,
	voix,
	inscrits,
	exprimes,
	CASE WHEN qualif = 'NON' THEN FALSE ELSE TRUE END AS qualified,
	code,
	nom,
	orientation,
	orientation_num,
	ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo ORDER BY exprimes DESC) AS pos
FROM undecided AS r
JOIN nuances AS n
ON r.nuance = n.code;

CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE report_voix_duel AS
SELECT 
	*
FROM read_csv_auto('report_voix_duel.csv');


CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE tour_2 AS
WITH duels AS (
	SELECT circo_code, list(orientation ORDER BY orientation) AS orientations
	FROM cleaned_undecided
	WHERE qualified = TRUE
	AND pos <= 2
	GROUP BY circo_code
)
SELECT 
	cu.*,
	CASE WHEN orientation = 'Extrême Gauche' THEN 'Gauche' ELSE orientation END AS bucket_orientation,
	CASE WHEN orientation_num = -2 THEN -1 ELSE orientation_num END AS bucket_orientation_num,
	d.orientations[1] AS orientation_candidat_1,
	d.orientations[2] AS orientation_candidat_2
FROM cleaned_undecided AS cu
JOIN duels AS d
ON d.circo_code = cu.circo_code;

-----

-- Circonscriptions dans lesquelles il y a 2 candidats de même orientation
SELECT region, circo, orientation, string_agg(nuance, ', ' ORDER BY exprimes DESC) AS nuances
FROM cleaned_undecided
WHERE qualified = TRUE
GROUP BY region, circo, orientation
HAVING count(*) >= 2
ORDER BY orientation, region, circo

-- Duels en cas de désistement automatique
WITH duels_circo AS (
	SELECT DISTINCT circo_code, orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2 
	FROM tour_2
)
SELECT orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2, count(*) AS n
FROM duels_circo
GROUP BY orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2
ORDER BY n DESC;

-- Après report de voix
WITH report AS (
	SELECT dc.region, dc.circo, rvd."to" AS orientation, dc.exprimes * rvd.quantity AS projection
	FROM tour_2 AS dc
	JOIN report_voix_duel AS rvd
	ON (
		dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_1 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_2
		OR dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_2 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_1
		) AND rvd."from" = dc.orientation
	ORDER BY circo_code
), agg_projection AS (
	SELECT region, circo, orientation, sum(projection) AS projection
	FROM report
	GROUP BY region, circo, orientation
	ORDER BY region, circo, orientation
), ordered_projection AS (
	SELECT 
		*, 
		ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo ORDER BY projection DESC) AS pos
	FROM agg_projection
)
SELECT orientation, count(*) AS n
FROM ordered_projection
WHERE pos = 1
GROUP BY orientation
ORDER BY n DESC;