Add analyse sql & source

analyse-duckdb.sql

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+-------------------------
+-- Prep
+-------------------------
+SET file_search_path = '/home/daifukusan/Documents/analysis/legislatives2024/res/';
+
+CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE nuances AS
+SELECT 
+	*,
+	CASE 
+		WHEN orientation = 'Extrême Gauche' THEN -2
+		WHEN orientation = 'Gauche' THEN -1
+		WHEN orientation = 'Centre' THEN 0
+		WHEN orientation = 'Droite' THEN 1
+		WHEN orientation = 'Extrême Droite' THEN 2
+	END AS 'orientation_num'
+FROM read_csv_auto('nuances.csv');
+
+CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE raw AS
+SELECT
+	regexp_extract(region, '\((.+)\)', 1) AS region_code,
+	region,
+	regexp_extract(circo, '\((.+)\)', 1) AS circo_code,
+	circo,
+	trim(results->'$[0]', '"') AS nuance, 
+	trim(results->'$[1]', '"') AS candidat, 
+	CAST(results->'$[2]' AS BIGINT) AS voix,
+	CAST(results->'$[3]' AS DECIMAL) AS inscrits,
+	CAST(results->'$[4]' AS DECIMAL) AS exprimes,
+	trim(results->'$[5]', '"') AS qualif,
+FROM (
+	SELECT region, circo, unnest(results) AS results
+	FROM read_json_auto('legislatives_2024_fr_results.json')
+	) AS t;
+
+
+CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE undecided AS
+WITH with_qualif AS (
+	SELECT DISTINCT region, circo 
+	FROM raw
+	WHERE qualif = 'QUALIF T2'
+)
+SELECT r.* FROM raw AS r
+JOIN with_qualif AS u
+ON u.region = r.region
+AND u.circo = r.circo;
+
+-------------------
+-- Analyse
+-------------------
+
+-- Configurations de second tours par ordre de voix par qualifiés
+WITH versus AS (
+	SELECT region, circo, string_agg(nuance, ', ' ORDER BY exprimes) AS vs
+	FROM raw
+	WHERE qualif = 'QUALIF T2'
+	GROUP BY region, circo
+	ORDER BY region, circo
+)
+SELECT 
+	count(*) AS "nombre", 
+	vs AS "configuration" FROM versus
+GROUP BY vs
+ORDER BY "nombre" DESC;
+
+-- Nombre de 2n tours
+SELECT 
+	CASE WHEN qualif = 'OUI' THEN 'NON' ELSE 'OUI' END AS '2nd tour ?',
+	count(*) as 'nombre'
+FROM (SELECT DISTINCT region, circo, qualif FROM raw WHERE qualif in ('QUALIF T2', 'OUI')) AS t
+GROUP BY qualif;
+
+
+-- Nombre de circonscriptions qui auront un 2nd tour dans lesquelles NFP est arrivé à telle ou telle position au premier tour:
+WITH ordered AS (
+	SELECT 
+		*,
+		ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo ORDER BY exprimes DESC) AS pos
+	FROM raw
+	WHERE qualif = 'QUALIF T2'
+)
+SELECT pos AS "Position 1er tour", count(*) AS "Nombre de Circonscription" FROM ordered
+WHERE nuance = 'UG'
+GROUP BY pos
+ORDER BY pos;
+
+----------------------
+-- Projection
+----------------------
+
+CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE cleaned_undecided AS 
+SELECT 
+	region_code,
+	circo_code,
+	region,
+	circo,
+	nuance,
+	candidat,
+	voix,
+	inscrits,
+	exprimes,
+	CASE WHEN qualif = 'NON' THEN FALSE ELSE TRUE END AS qualified,
+	code,
+	nom,
+	orientation,
+	orientation_num,
+	ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo ORDER BY exprimes DESC) AS pos
+FROM undecided AS r
+JOIN nuances AS n
+ON r.nuance = n.code;
+
+CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE report_voix_duel AS
+SELECT 
+	*
+FROM read_csv_auto('report_voix_duel.csv');
+
+
+CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE tour_2 AS
+WITH duels AS (
+	SELECT circo_code, list(orientation ORDER BY orientation) AS orientations
+	FROM cleaned_undecided
+	WHERE qualified = TRUE
+	AND pos <= 2
+	GROUP BY circo_code
+)
+SELECT 
+	cu.*,
+	CASE WHEN orientation = 'Extrême Gauche' THEN 'Gauche' ELSE orientation END AS bucket_orientation,
+	CASE WHEN orientation_num = -2 THEN -1 ELSE orientation_num END AS bucket_orientation_num,
+	d.orientations[1] AS orientation_candidat_1,
+	d.orientations[2] AS orientation_candidat_2
+FROM cleaned_undecided AS cu
+JOIN duels AS d
+ON d.circo_code = cu.circo_code;
+
+-----
+
+-- Circonscriptions dans lesquelles il y a 2 candidats de même orientation
+SELECT region, circo, orientation, string_agg(nuance, ', ' ORDER BY exprimes DESC) AS nuances
+FROM cleaned_undecided
+WHERE qualified = TRUE
+GROUP BY region, circo, orientation
+HAVING count(*) >= 2
+ORDER BY orientation, region, circo
+
+-- Duels en cas de désistement automatique
+WITH duels_circo AS (
+	SELECT DISTINCT circo_code, orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2 
+	FROM tour_2
+)
+SELECT orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2, count(*) AS n
+FROM duels_circo
+GROUP BY orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2
+ORDER BY n DESC;
+
+-- Après report de voix
+WITH report AS (
+	SELECT dc.region, dc.circo, rvd."to" AS orientation, dc.exprimes * rvd.quantity AS projection
+	FROM tour_2 AS dc
+	JOIN report_voix_duel AS rvd
+	ON (
+		dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_1 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_2
+		OR dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_2 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_1
+		) AND rvd."from" = dc.orientation
+	ORDER BY circo_code
+), agg_projection AS (
+	SELECT region, circo, orientation, sum(projection) AS projection
+	FROM report
+	GROUP BY region, circo, orientation
+	ORDER BY region, circo, orientation
+), ordered_projection AS (
+	SELECT 
+		*, 
+		ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo ORDER BY projection DESC) AS pos
+	FROM agg_projection
+)
+SELECT orientation, count(*) AS n
+FROM ordered_projection
+WHERE pos = 1
+GROUP BY orientation
+ORDER BY n DESC;

res/nuances.csv

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+code,nom,orientation
+RN,Rassemblement National,Extrême Droite
+UG,Union de la gauche,Gauche
+ENS,Ensemble !,Centre
+LR,Les Républicains,Droite
+UXD,Union de l'extrême droite,Extrême Droite
+DVD,Divers droite,Droite
+DVG,Divers gauche,Gauche
+DVC,Divers centre,Centre
+EXG,Extrême gauche,Extrême Gauche
+REG,Régionaliste,Droite
+REC,Reconquête !,Extrême Droite
+HOR,Horizons,Centre
+ECO,Ecologistes,Gauche
+UDI,Union des Démocrates et Indépendants,Centre
+DIV,Divers,Centre
+DSV,Droite souverainiste,Extrême Droite
+EXD,Extrême droite,Extrême Droite
+SOC,Parti socialiste,Gauche
+RDG,Parti radical de gauche,Gauche
+FI,La France insoumise,Gauche
+COM,Parti communiste français,Gauche
+VEC,Les Ecologistes,Gauche

res/report_voix_duel.csv

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+candidat_1,candidat_2,from,to,quantity
+Extrême Droite,Gauche,Centre,Gauche,0.34
+Extrême Droite,Gauche,Centre,Extrême Droite,0.18
+Extrême Droite,Gauche,Droite,Gauche,0.36
+Extrême Droite,Gauche,Droite,Extrême Droite,0.27
+Extrême Droite,Gauche,Extrême Droite,Extrême Droite,1.0
+Extrême Droite,Gauche,Gauche,Gauche,1.0
+Centre,Gauche,Extrême Droite,Gauche,0.18
+Centre,Gauche,Extrême Droite,Centre,0.25
+Centre,Gauche,Droite,Gauche,0.20
+Centre,Gauche,Droite,Centre,0.40
+Centre,Gauche,Centre,Centre,1.0
+Centre,Gauche,Gauche,Gauche,1.0
+Centre,Extrême Droite,Gauche,Centre,0.31
+Centre,Extrême Droite,Gauche,Extrême Droite,0.24
+Centre,Extrême Droite,Droite,Centre,0.30
+Centre,Extrême Droite,Droite,Extrême Droite,0.20
+Centre,Extrême Droite,Centre,Centre,1.0
+Centre,Extrême Droite,Extrême Droite,Extrême Droite,1.0
+Droite,Extrême Droite,Gauche,Droite,0.31
+Droite,Extrême Droite,Gauche,Extrême Droite,0.24
+Droite,Extrême Droite,Centre,Droite,0.36
+Droite,Extrême Droite,Centre,Extrême Droite,0.27
+Droite,Extrême Droite,Droite,Droite,1.0
+Droite,Extrême Droite,Extrême Droite,Extrême Droite,1.0