diff --git a/analyse-duckdb.sql b/analyse-duckdb.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bcc6826 --- /dev/null +++ b/analyse-duckdb.sql @@ -0,0 +1,180 @@ +------------------------- +-- Prep +------------------------- +SET file_search_path = '/home/daifukusan/Documents/analysis/legislatives2024/res/'; + +CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE nuances AS +SELECT + *, + CASE + WHEN orientation = 'Extrême Gauche' THEN -2 + WHEN orientation = 'Gauche' THEN -1 + WHEN orientation = 'Centre' THEN 0 + WHEN orientation = 'Droite' THEN 1 + WHEN orientation = 'Extrême Droite' THEN 2 + END AS 'orientation_num' +FROM read_csv_auto('nuances.csv'); + +CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE raw AS +SELECT + regexp_extract(region, '\((.+)\)', 1) AS region_code, + region, + regexp_extract(circo, '\((.+)\)', 1) AS circo_code, + circo, + trim(results->'$[0]', '"') AS nuance, + trim(results->'$[1]', '"') AS candidat, + CAST(results->'$[2]' AS BIGINT) AS voix, + CAST(results->'$[3]' AS DECIMAL) AS inscrits, + CAST(results->'$[4]' AS DECIMAL) AS exprimes, + trim(results->'$[5]', '"') AS qualif, +FROM ( + SELECT region, circo, unnest(results) AS results + FROM read_json_auto('legislatives_2024_fr_results.json') + ) AS t; + + +CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE undecided AS +WITH with_qualif AS ( + SELECT DISTINCT region, circo + FROM raw + WHERE qualif = 'QUALIF T2' +) +SELECT r.* FROM raw AS r +JOIN with_qualif AS u +ON u.region = r.region +AND u.circo = r.circo; + +------------------- +-- Analyse +------------------- + +-- Configurations de second tours par ordre de voix par qualifiés +WITH versus AS ( + SELECT region, circo, string_agg(nuance, ', ' ORDER BY exprimes) AS vs + FROM raw + WHERE qualif = 'QUALIF T2' + GROUP BY region, circo + ORDER BY region, circo +) +SELECT + count(*) AS "nombre", + vs AS "configuration" FROM versus +GROUP BY vs +ORDER BY "nombre" DESC; + +-- Nombre de 2n tours +SELECT + CASE WHEN qualif = 'OUI' THEN 'NON' ELSE 'OUI' END AS '2nd tour ?', + count(*) as 'nombre' +FROM (SELECT DISTINCT region, circo, qualif FROM raw WHERE qualif in ('QUALIF T2', 'OUI')) AS t +GROUP BY qualif; + + +-- Nombre de circonscriptions qui auront un 2nd tour dans lesquelles NFP est arrivé à telle ou telle position au premier tour: +WITH ordered AS ( + SELECT + *, + ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo ORDER BY exprimes DESC) AS pos + FROM raw + WHERE qualif = 'QUALIF T2' +) +SELECT pos AS "Position 1er tour", count(*) AS "Nombre de Circonscription" FROM ordered +WHERE nuance = 'UG' +GROUP BY pos +ORDER BY pos; + +---------------------- +-- Projection +---------------------- + +CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE cleaned_undecided AS +SELECT + region_code, + circo_code, + region, + circo, + nuance, + candidat, + voix, + inscrits, + exprimes, + CASE WHEN qualif = 'NON' THEN FALSE ELSE TRUE END AS qualified, + code, + nom, + orientation, + orientation_num, + ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo ORDER BY exprimes DESC) AS pos +FROM undecided AS r +JOIN nuances AS n +ON r.nuance = n.code; + +CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE report_voix_duel AS +SELECT + * +FROM read_csv_auto('report_voix_duel.csv'); + + +CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE tour_2 AS +WITH duels AS ( + SELECT circo_code, list(orientation ORDER BY orientation) AS orientations + FROM cleaned_undecided + WHERE qualified = TRUE + AND pos <= 2 + GROUP BY circo_code +) +SELECT + cu.*, + CASE WHEN orientation = 'Extrême Gauche' THEN 'Gauche' ELSE orientation END AS bucket_orientation, + CASE WHEN orientation_num = -2 THEN -1 ELSE orientation_num END AS bucket_orientation_num, + d.orientations[1] AS orientation_candidat_1, + d.orientations[2] AS orientation_candidat_2 +FROM cleaned_undecided AS cu +JOIN duels AS d +ON d.circo_code = cu.circo_code; + +----- + +-- Circonscriptions dans lesquelles il y a 2 candidats de même orientation +SELECT region, circo, orientation, string_agg(nuance, ', ' ORDER BY exprimes DESC) AS nuances +FROM cleaned_undecided +WHERE qualified = TRUE +GROUP BY region, circo, orientation +HAVING count(*) >= 2 +ORDER BY orientation, region, circo + +-- Duels en cas de désistement automatique +WITH duels_circo AS ( + SELECT DISTINCT circo_code, orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2 + FROM tour_2 +) +SELECT orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2, count(*) AS n +FROM duels_circo +GROUP BY orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2 +ORDER BY n DESC; + +-- Après report de voix +WITH report AS ( + SELECT dc.region, dc.circo, rvd."to" AS orientation, dc.exprimes * rvd.quantity AS projection + FROM tour_2 AS dc + JOIN report_voix_duel AS rvd + ON ( + dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_1 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_2 + OR dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_2 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_1 + ) AND rvd."from" = dc.orientation + ORDER BY circo_code +), agg_projection AS ( + SELECT region, circo, orientation, sum(projection) AS projection + FROM report + GROUP BY region, circo, orientation + ORDER BY region, circo, orientation +), ordered_projection AS ( + SELECT + *, + ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo ORDER BY projection DESC) AS pos + FROM agg_projection +) +SELECT orientation, count(*) AS n +FROM ordered_projection +WHERE pos = 1 +GROUP BY orientation +ORDER BY n DESC; diff --git a/res/legislatives_2024_fr_results.json b/res/legislatives_2024_fr_results.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..007364a --- /dev/null +++ b/res/legislatives_2024_fr_results.json @@ -0,0 +1,37267 @@ +[ + { + "url": "https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/84/01/0101/index.html", + "region": "Ain (01)", + "circo": "1ère circonscription (0101)", + "sieges": 1, + "ratio": 100, + "results": [ + [ + "RN", + "M. Christophe MAÎTRE", + 23819, + 27.43, + 39.37, + "QUALIF T2" + ], + [ + "LR", + "M. Xavier BRETON", + 14495, + 16.69, + 23.96, + "QUALIF T2" + ], + [ + "UG", + "M. Sébastien GUERAUD", + 14188, + 16.34, + 23.45, + "QUALIF T2" + ], + [ + "ENS", + "M. Vincent GUILLERMIN", + 7063, + 8.13, + 11.68, + "NON" + ], + [ + "EXG", + "M. Éric LAHY", + 419, + 0.48, + 0.69, + "NON" + ], + [ + "DSV", + "M. Michael MENDES", + 314, + 0.36, + 0.52, + "NON" + ], + [ + "DSV", + "M. Cyril VINCENT", + 197, + 0.23, + 0.33, + "NON" + ] + ] + }, + { + "url": "https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/84/01/0102/index.html", + "region": "Ain (01)", + "circo": "2ème circonscription (0102)", + "sieges": 1, + "ratio": 100, + "results": [ + [ + "RN", + "M. Andréa KOTARAC", + 28189, + 27.67, + 39.2, + "QUALIF T2" + ], + [ + "ENS", + "M. Romain DAUBIÉ", + 17414, + 17.09, + 24.21, + "QUALIF T2" + ], + [ + "UG", + "M. Maxime MEYER", + 16981, + 16.67, + 23.61, + "QUALIF T2" + ], + [ + "LR", + "M. Alexandre NANCHI", + 6737, + 6.61, + 9.37, + "NON" + ], + [ + "EXD", + "M. Olivier EYRAUD", + 1863, + 1.83, + 2.59, + "NON" + ], + [ + "EXG", + "M. Vincent GOUTAGNY", + 734, + 0.72, + 1.02, + "NON" + ] + ] + }, + { + "url": "https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/84/01/0103/index.html", + "region": "Ain (01)", + "circo": "3ème circonscription (0103)", + "sieges": 1, + "ratio": 100, + "results": [ + [ + "ENS", + "Mme Olga GIVERNET", + 17420, + 20.71, + 32.43, + "QUALIF T2" + ], + [ + "RN", + "Mme Karine DUBARRY", + 17252, + 20.51, + 32.11, + "QUALIF T2" + ], + [ + "UG", + "M. Christian JOLIE", + 13497, + 16.04, + 25.12, + "QUALIF T2" + ], + [ + "LR", + "Mme Khadija UNAL", + 3663, + 4.35, + 6.82, + "NON" + ], + [ + "DSV", + "Mme Annick VEILLEROT", + 769, + 0.91, + 1.43, + "NON" + ], + [ + "DIV", + "M. Fulgence KOUASSI", + 630, + 0.75, + 1.17, + "NON" + ], + [ + "EXG", + "Mme Cécile MAISONNETTE", + 455, + 0.54, + 0.85, + "NON" + ], + [ + "DIV", + "Mme Sofia TONIZZO", + 34, + 0.04, + 0.06, + "NON" + ] + ] + }, + { + "url": "https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/84/01/0104/index.html", + "region": "Ain (01)", + "circo": "4ème circonscription (0104)", + "sieges": 1, + "ratio": 100, + "results": [ + [ + "RN", + "M. Jérôme BUISSON", + 30221, + 31.44, + 46.01, + "QUALIF T2" + ], + [ + "ENS", + "M. Christophe COQUELET", + 14367, + 14.95, + 21.87, + "QUALIF T2" + ], + [ + "UG", + "Mme Charline LIOTIER", + 13113, + 13.64, + 19.96, + "QUALIF T2" + ], + [ + "LR", + "M. Guy BILLOUDET", + 7179, + 7.47, + 10.93, + "NON" + ], + [ + "EXG", + "M. Sylvain COUSSON", + 706, + 0.73, + 1.07, + "NON" + ], + [ + "DIV", + "M. Jérémy NICAUD", + 85, + 0.09, + 0.13, + "NON" + ], + [ + "DIV", + "M. 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