Add swing circo

README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+<!-- vscode-markdown-toc -->
+* 1. [TOC](#TOC)
+* 2. [Introduction](#Introduction)
+
+<!-- vscode-markdown-toc-config
+	numbering=true
+	autoSave=true
+	/vscode-markdown-toc-config -->
+<!-- /vscode-markdown-toc --># Analyse Legislatives 2024
+
+##  1. <a name='TOC'></a>TOC
+
+
+
+##  2. <a name='Introduction'></a>Introduction

analyse-duckdb.sql

@@ -134,7 +134,11 @@ ON d.circo_code = cu.circo_code;
 
 CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE projection AS
 WITH report AS (
-	SELECT dc.region, dc.circo, rvd."to" AS orientation, dc.exprimes * rvd.quantity AS projection
+	SELECT 
+		dc.region,
+		dc.circo,
+		rvd."to" AS orientation,
+		dc.exprimes * rvd.quantity AS projection
 	FROM tour_2 AS dc
 	JOIN report_voix_duel AS rvd
 	ON (
@@ -155,6 +159,23 @@ SELECT
 	projection / SUM(projection) OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo) AS projection
 FROM agg_projection
 
+CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE projection_voix AS
+SELECT 
+	dc.region,
+	dc.circo,
+	rvd."to" AS orientation,
+	SUM(dc.voix * rvd.quantity) AS projection
+FROM tour_2 AS dc
+JOIN report_voix_duel AS rvd
+ON (
+	dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_1 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_2
+	OR dc.orientation_candidat_1 = rvd.candidat_2 AND dc.orientation_candidat_2 = rvd.candidat_1
+	) AND rvd."from" = dc.orientation
+GROUP BY 
+	dc.region,
+	dc.circo,
+	rvd."to"
+
 -----
 
 -- Circonscriptions dans lesquelles il y a 2 candidats de même orientation
@@ -192,37 +213,32 @@ ORDER BY n DESC;
 -- Projection avec faible écart
 CREATE OR REPLACE TEMP TABLE difference AS
 WITH diff_null AS (
-	SELECT region, circo, ABS(projection - lag(projection) OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo)) AS diff
-	FROM projection
-	ORDER BY region, circo
-)
-SELECT * 
-FROM diff_null
-WHERE diff IS NOT NULL;
-
-
-WITH duels_circo AS (
+	SELECT 
+		p.region,
+		p.circo,
+		FIRST(p.orientation) OVER (PARTITION BY p.region, p.circo ORDER BY p.projection DESC) AS elu,
+		ABS(p.projection - lag(p.projection) OVER (PARTITION BY p.region, p.circo)) AS diff,
+		ABS(pv.projection - lag(pv.projection) OVER (PARTITION BY p.region, p.circo)) AS diff_voix
+	FROM projection AS p
+	JOIN projection_voix AS pv
+	ON p.region = pv.region
+		AND p.circo = pv.circo
+		AND p.orientation = pv.orientation
+	ORDER BY p.region, p.circo
+), duels_circo AS (
 	SELECT DISTINCT circo_code, region, circo, orientation_candidat_1, orientation_candidat_2
 	FROM tour_2
-), diff_null AS (
-	SELECT 
-		region,
-		circo,
-		ABS(projection - lag(projection) OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo)) AS diff,
-		FIRST(orientation) OVER (PARTITION BY region, circo ORDER BY projection DESC) AS elu
-	FROM projection
-	ORDER BY region, circo
-), diff AS (
-	SELECT * 
-	FROM diff_null
-	WHERE diff IS NOT NULL
-), diff_orientation AS (
-	SELECT dc.*, d.diff, d.elu
-	FROM duels_circo AS dc
-	JOIN diff AS d
-	ON d.region = dc.region 
+)
+SELECT dc.*, d.elu, d.diff, d.diff_voix
+FROM duels_circo AS dc
+JOIN diff_null AS d
+ON d.region = dc.region 
 	AND d.circo = dc.circo
-), bucket_diff_orientation AS (
+WHERE d.diff IS NOT NULL;
+
+
+-- Nombre de duels avec un écart entre les candidats de 1, 2, 5, 10, 20 et 50 pourcents
+WITH bucket_diff_orientation AS (
 	SELECT 
 		orientation_candidat_1 || ' v ' || orientation_candidat_2 AS duel,
 		elu AS "projection élu",
@@ -233,7 +249,7 @@ WITH duels_circo AS (
 		SUM(CASE WHEN diff < 0.20 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS "20%",
 		SUM(CASE WHEN diff < 0.50 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS "50%",
 		COUNT(*) AS total
-	FROM diff_orientation
+	FROM difference
 	GROUP BY 
 		orientation_candidat_1,
 		orientation_candidat_2,
@@ -241,7 +257,7 @@ WITH duels_circo AS (
 ), ordered_bucket_diff_orientation AS (
 	SELECT 
 		*,
-		ROW_NUMBER() OVER (ORDER BY duel ASC, "projection élu" ASC) AS r
+		ROW_NUMBER() OVER (ORDER BY duel DESC, "projection élu" DESC) AS r
 	FROM bucket_diff_orientation
 ), res AS (
 	SELECT *
@@ -262,4 +278,71 @@ WITH duels_circo AS (
 )
 SELECT * EXCLUDE (r)
 FROM res
-ORDER BY r DESC
+ORDER BY r DESC;
+
+
+-- Pour les ecarts de moins de 5%, à combien de voix cela se joue ?
+SELECT 
+	orientation_candidat_1 || ' v ' || orientation_candidat_2 AS duel,
+	elu AS "projection élu",
+	round(min(diff_voix)) AS "min",
+	round(max(diff_voix)) AS "max",
+	round(mean(diff_voix)) AS "moyenne",
+	round(quantile_disc(diff_voix, 0.25)) AS "1er Quartile",
+	round(median(diff_voix)) AS "médianne",
+	round(quantile_disc(diff_voix, 0.75)) AS "3e Quartile",
+FROM difference
+WHERE diff < 0.05
+GROUP BY 
+	orientation_candidat_1,
+	orientation_candidat_2,
+	elu
+ORDER BY 
+	duel, 
+	"projection élu"
+	
+	
+-- Les "swing" circos où la gauche est présente
+SELECT *
+FROM difference
+WHERE orientation_candidat_1 = 'Gauche'
+	OR orientation_candidat_2 = 'Gauche'
+ORDER BY diff	
+	
+-- Rank des "swing" circos analysés par Averroès
+SELECT 
+	circo_code AS 'Code Circo',
+	region AS 'Région',
+	circo AS 'Circo',
+	CASE WHEN diff < 0.01 THEN TRUE ELSE FALSE END AS '<1%',
+	CASE WHEN diff < 0.02 THEN TRUE ELSE FALSE END AS '<2%',
+	CASE WHEN diff < 0.05 THEN TRUE ELSE FALSE END AS '<5%',
+	CASE WHEN elu = 'Gauche' THEN TRUE ELSE FALSE END AS 'Gauche favorite ?'
+FROM difference 
+WHERE circo_code IN (
+	'0502',
+	'0703',
+	'1202',
+	'1601',
+	'2103',
+	'2404',
+	'3103',
+	'3704',
+	'3809',
+	'6302',
+	'6303',
+	'6406',
+	'6912',
+	'7701',
+	'7708',
+	'8002',
+	'8401',
+	'8602',
+	'8703',
+	'9404',
+	'9407',
+	'0402'
+)
+ORDER BY circo_code
+
+